Outstanding-Change
0xc03fd7f514a6d52fe0b8291846717724f6c1249d
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
68
Open notional
$1.7K
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$-110.63
Win rate
24%
51 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 68- NO
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
300 shares @ 87.2¢·now 87.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$260.85
$-0.75
- NO
Will "The Pitt" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys?
300 shares @ 59.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$157.50
$-19.50
- NO
Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 2.5% and 2.9%?
200 shares @ 77.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Jan 20, 2027$153.10
$-0.90
- NO
Will the Serbian National Assembly be dissolved by August 31?
200 shares @ 88.0¢·now 76.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$152.00
$-24.00
- YES
Will S8UL Esports Win the 2026 Esports Content Group of the Year Award?
200 shares @ 81.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$139.00
$-23.00
- NO
Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027?
167 shares @ 73.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$119.65
$-2.51
- NO
Will Waymo operate in 16-19 cities on December 31 2026?
200 shares @ 55.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$99.00
$-11.00
- NO
Will FUT Esports make playoffs?
200 shares @ 57.0¢·now 42.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$84.00
$-30.00
- NO
Will Steven Snell win the 2026 Williamson County Judge election?
201 shares @ 42.0¢·now 34.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$69.26
$-15.08
- YES
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
300 shares @ 19.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$52.50
$-4.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$4.60Aug 14, 05:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$261.60Aug 14, 05:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Green Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?$3.92Aug 14, 04:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Green Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?$2.15Aug 14, 04:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Green Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?$4.20Aug 14, 04:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Green Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?$2.69Aug 14, 04:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Shevrin Jones be the FL-24 Democratic nominee?$15.07Aug 14, 04:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$0.10Aug 14, 03:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Shevrin Jones be the FL-24 Democratic nominee?$0.99Aug 14, 03:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?$3.62Aug 14, 03:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Shevrin Jones be the FL-24 Democratic nominee?$19.36Aug 14, 03:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Shevrin Jones be the FL-24 Democratic nominee?$40.00Aug 14, 03:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Serbian National Assembly be dissolved by August 31?$176.00Aug 14, 02:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ana Patricia Peralta de la Peña win the 2027 Quintana Roo Governor Election?$7.40Aug 14, 02:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Waymo operate in 16-19 cities on December 31 2026?$110.00Aug 14, 02:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on August 31, 2026?$8.40Aug 14, 01:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jay Schroeder be the Wisconsin Secretary of State Republican nominee?$0.92Aug 14, 01:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jynxzi Win the 2026 Esports Content Creator of the Year Award?$8.20Aug 14, 01:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19?$8.74Aug 14, 01:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$525.60Aug 14, 00:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
24% win rate over 51 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
51 closed markets, 24% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $52.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 13, 19:07 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 14, 05:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 51 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.