Legitimate-Rebellion
0xc109ae1aebb28caced2c94044f177912f7ff450b
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
177
Open notional
$3.1K
Total PnL
$139.38
Realised
$357.17
Win rate
77%
81 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 177- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
347 shares @ 74.2¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$272.78
$14.94
- YES
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
226 shares @ 58.1¢·now 56.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$126.51
$-4.73
- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
139 shares @ 82.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$114.75
$0.68
- NO
Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?
127 shares @ 82.0¢·now 90.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$114.35
$10.19
- YES
Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31?
105 shares @ 64.0¢·now 84.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$88.18
$20.93
- NO
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
96 shares @ 87.7¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$87.93
$3.61
- YES
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?
211 shares @ 28.8¢·now 37.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$77.93
$17.25
- YES
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?
97 shares @ 85.9¢·now 80.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$77.78
$-5.21
- YES
Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026?
109 shares @ 69.1¢·now 70.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$76.74
$1.54
- NO
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?
382 shares @ 18.6¢·now 19.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$74.48
$3.52
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?$2.00Jul 29, 04:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?$1.05Jul 29, 04:31 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$12.80Jul 29, 02:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?$1.18Jul 29, 02:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?$0.70Jul 29, 02:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$0.34Jul 29, 01:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?$1.85Jul 29, 01:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?$1.85Jul 29, 01:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$4.97Jul 29, 01:11 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$2.45Jul 29, 00:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$6.80Jul 29, 00:22 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 29, 00:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?$3.55Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?$3.55Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?$2.64Jul 29, 00:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?$4.12Jul 29, 00:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?$0.01Jul 29, 00:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?$0.17Jul 29, 00:02 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$3.40Jul 28, 23:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?$3.60Jul 28, 23:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
79/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
77% win rate over 81 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
81 closed markets, 77% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $3.26
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 21:54 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 04:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 81 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.