Jagged-Pioneer
0xc13716ce60ccd854e400f64666f0665266215eb0
Wallet digest
Activity score
39/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$2.27
Total PnL
$-963.02
Realised
$-204.94
Win rate
9%
193 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
3 shares @ 37.1¢·now 47.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.60
$0.35
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
3 shares @ 25.6¢·now 22.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.67
$-0.08
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 11-17?
2356 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 18-24?
2201 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-5.29
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on May 28?
2139 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 29, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on May 18?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $69,000 on May 28?
1799 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 29, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 25-31?
1200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on May 27?
1041 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.04
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 11-17?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in July?$2.04Aug 12, 12:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET$1.07Aug 10, 13:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET$1.06Aug 10, 10:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET$5.17Aug 10, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET$1.04Aug 10, 10:35 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$1.08Aug 10, 10:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$1.06Aug 10, 10:31 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET$2.38Aug 10, 10:31 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET$2.35Aug 10, 10:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET$2.08Aug 10, 10:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET$1.06Aug 10, 10:21 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET$11.36Aug 9, 17:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET$1.06Aug 9, 17:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET$5.20Aug 9, 17:50 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2.09Jul 19, 21:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$5.17Jul 19, 21:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$5.15Jul 19, 21:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$30.88Jul 19, 02:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.26Jul 19, 02:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
9% win rate over 193 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
193 closed markets, 9% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $8.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 31, 01:44 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 12, 12:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 193 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.