Major-Swing
0xc176b3f2c1e2af38e4ae1ea9d1fcaa18a6515d01
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
88
Open notional
$1.83
Total PnL
$-179.36
Realised
$3.99
Win rate
59%
27 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 88- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 7?
21 shares @ 83.6¢·now 8.8¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$1.83
$-15.70
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 4?
167 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 15?
142 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 15?
136 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 24?
113 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-2.66
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 24?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 7?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 30?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 18?
62 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 15?
26 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 7?$5.37Jul 7, 03:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 7?$5.76Jul 7, 03:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 7?$12.24Jul 7, 02:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 7?$12.95Jul 7, 02:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 7?$0.00Jul 7, 01:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 7?$0.35Jul 7, 01:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 7?$1.05Jul 7, 00:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 7?$1.83Jul 7, 00:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 7?$7.59Jul 7, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 7?$10.11Jul 7, 00:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 7?$10.08Jul 6, 23:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on July 6?$38.95Jul 6, 22:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on July 6?$14.17Jul 6, 16:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on July 6?$2.53Jul 6, 16:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on July 6?$3.05Jul 6, 16:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on July 6?$5.09Jul 6, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on July 6?$2.49Jul 6, 15:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 6?$27.21Jul 6, 07:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 6?$27.01Jul 6, 07:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 6?$12.99Jul 6, 07:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
51/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
59% win rate over 27 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
27 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $7.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 5, 20:29 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 7, 03:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 27 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.