Offbeat-Thesis
0xc1a58674dbcc1d3208f7e61a0a8b252162caf290
Wallet digest
Activity score
92/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
30
Open notional
$240.6K
Total PnL
$8.3K
Realised
$-698.50
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 30- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?
56342 shares @ 99.5¢·now 99.9¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$56.3K
$207.96
- NO
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
34011 shares @ 92.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$32.1K
$818.48
- NO
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?
31175 shares @ 86.1¢·now 91.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$28.4K
$1.6K
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?
20962 shares @ 91.1¢·now 95.7¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$20.0K
$956.09
- NO
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026?
17791 shares @ 75.1¢·now 93.8¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$16.7K
$3.3K
- NO
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 by December 31, 2026?
16965 shares @ 82.0¢·now 96.9¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$16.4K
$2.5K
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in July?
15000 shares @ 97.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$15.0K
$412.50
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in July?
11111 shares @ 97.9¢·now 99.7¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$11.1K
$200.50
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $42,500 in July?
6652 shares @ 99.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$6.6K
$41.67
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in July?
6330 shares @ 99.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$6.3K
$28.48
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$1.92Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$7.71Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?$1.0KJul 28, 13:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?$2.02Jul 28, 13:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?$398.80Jul 28, 12:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?$504.33Jul 28, 03:24 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$2.28Jul 28, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$7.53Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?$997.00Jul 27, 18:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?$997.00Jul 27, 18:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?$1.3KJul 27, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?$1.6KJul 27, 16:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?$1.99Jul 27, 15:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?$3.3KJul 27, 13:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?$3.3KJul 27, 13:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?$250.52Jul 27, 12:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?$4.02Jul 27, 10:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?$265.87Jul 27, 09:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?$332.33Jul 27, 09:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in July?$332.33Jul 27, 07:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$8.6K
Trades
1
Buy share
100%
Window
May 27, 21:50 UTC → May 27, 21:47 UTC
- BUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?$8.6K@96¢May 27, 21:47 UTC
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
31 live trades, 1 ledger trades, copy-risk 73/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
100%
Sample
low
1 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?
$8.6K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $2.8K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 17, 12:29 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.