Twin-Clarification
0xc253ad0b02cee5ace475a094ca5127cbe5bcd907
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
28
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-350.02
Realised
$-38.80
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 28- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET
92 shares @ 87.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-79.74
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET
66 shares @ 60.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-39.42
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET
60 shares @ 33.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2026$0.00
$-19.76
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET
32 shares @ 93.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2026$0.00
$-29.97
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET
21 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-9.85
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET
16 shares @ 60.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-9.86
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET
16 shares @ 63.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-9.86
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET
14 shares @ 69.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 12, 2026$0.00
$-9.89
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET
14 shares @ 72.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 12, 2026$0.00
$-9.90
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - May 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$1.02May 15, 10:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - May 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$1.02May 15, 10:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - May 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$1.02May 15, 10:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET$5.04May 15, 10:24 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET$1.11May 15, 08:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$1.02May 15, 08:14 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$2.06May 15, 08:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET$1.01May 15, 08:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$1.00May 15, 08:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$1.00May 15, 08:03 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET$1.59May 15, 07:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET$1.03May 15, 07:59 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET$1.67May 15, 07:44 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET$0.04May 15, 07:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET$1.02May 15, 07:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET$1.03May 15, 07:39 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$0.09May 12, 08:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$1.01May 12, 08:42 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - May 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET$1.19May 12, 08:04 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$0.25May 12, 08:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $1.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 19, 05:18 UTC
- Last active
- May 15, 10:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.