Early-Mutation
0xc26fdb4b8fbfe5e2f6a858e37f8e80908e2aeedf
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$243.59
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$-14.14
Win rate
0%
200 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- UP
Solana Up or Down - August 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET
7 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 10, 2026$6.92
$0.07
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
6 shares @ 81.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$6.18
$1.17
- DOWN
BNB Up or Down - August 7, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET
6 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$6.01
$0.06
- UP
XRP Up or Down - July 2, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET
6 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$6.01
$0.06
- UP
Solana Up or Down - July 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET
6 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$6.01
$0.06
- UP
Dogecoin Up or Down - July 1, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET
6 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$6.01
$0.06
- UP
Solana Up or Down - July 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET
6 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$6.01
$0.06
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - July 2, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET
6 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$6.01
$0.06
- UP
Solana Up or Down - July 1, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET
6 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$6.01
$0.06
- UP
XRP Up or Down - July 2, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET
6 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$6.01
$0.06
Recent activity
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - August 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$12.02Aug 12, 09:22 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET$16.24Aug 12, 09:22 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$36.06Aug 12, 09:22 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$55.55Aug 12, 09:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET$5.53Aug 12, 07:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - August 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$11.91Aug 11, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$19.31Aug 11, 20:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$23.82Aug 11, 20:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$11.91Aug 11, 20:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - August 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET$5.96Aug 11, 19:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - August 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET$11.91Aug 11, 17:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - August 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET$5.96Aug 11, 17:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$2.30Aug 11, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$9.61Aug 11, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$8.96Aug 11, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$14.86Aug 11, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET$7.37Aug 11, 10:26 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET$9.62Aug 11, 08:52 UTC
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - August 10, 4AM ET$12.02Aug 11, 08:48 UTC
- REDEEMBNB Up or Down - August 11, 1AM ET$12.02Aug 11, 08:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 200 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
23 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
200 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 23
- Avg trade size
- $8.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 10, 04:59 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 12, 09:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 200 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.