Concrete-Ammunition
0xc27830f67a48df607b661ac1417e4d96b2e9a116
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
114
Open notional
$210.31
Total PnL
$-515.59
Realised
$-68.77
Win rate
12%
33 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 114- ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs
87 shares @ 38.0¢·now 70.5¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$61.17
$28.20
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
206 shares @ 18.8¢·now 23.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$47.39
$8.74
- YES
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
148 shares @ 38.5¢·now 29.4¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$43.47
$-13.29
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
108 shares @ 17.2¢·now 8.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$9.48
$-9.15
- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
65 shares @ 5.9¢·now 13.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$8.70
$4.88
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
11 shares @ 56.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$5.78
$-0.39
- NO
Will Larry Ellison be richest person on December 31?
5 shares @ 99.0¢·now 99.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.71
$0.04
- NO
Will BNB reach $1500 by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 90.0¢·now 96.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$4.56
$0.31
- YES
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
6 shares @ 45.0¢·now 47.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$2.98
$0.16
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
5 shares @ 54.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$2.48
$-0.23
Recent activity
- REDEEMPhiladelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5$0.00Aug 16, 20:02 UTC
- TRADESELLNew York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays$26.39Aug 16, 19:28 UTC
- TRADESELLNew York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays$21.38Aug 16, 19:24 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 2PM ET$15.25Aug 16, 19:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWashington Nationals vs. New York Mets$12.68Aug 16, 19:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 2PM ET$9.26Aug 16, 18:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 1PM ET$0.00Aug 16, 18:12 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 1PM ET$12.67Aug 16, 18:11 UTC
- TRADESELLBoston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates$9.13Aug 16, 17:48 UTC
- TRADESELLBoston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates$4.32Aug 16, 17:48 UTC
- TRADESELLBoston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates$6.39Aug 16, 17:48 UTC
- TRADESELLBoston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates$26.86Aug 16, 17:48 UTC
- TRADESELLBoston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates$1.00Aug 16, 17:48 UTC
- TRADESELLBoston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates$13.68Aug 16, 17:48 UTC
- TRADESELLBoston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates$3.60Aug 16, 17:48 UTC
- TRADESELLBoston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates$10.80Aug 16, 17:48 UTC
- TRADESELLBaltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays$79.25Aug 16, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 1PM ET$8.56Aug 16, 17:15 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 12PM ET$13.23Aug 16, 17:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYSt. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs$20.94Aug 16, 16:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
12% win rate over 33 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
33 closed markets, 12% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $21.51
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 15, 19:17 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 16, 20:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 33 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.