Critical-Lox
0xc33a02947eb21fc4a179d28f7c71aa1826accc98
Wallet digest
Activity score
91/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
29
Open notional
$2.0K
Total PnL
$52.08
Realised
$-1.94
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 29- NO
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
530 shares @ 94.0¢·now 97.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$517.96
$19.96
- NO
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?
328 shares @ 91.4¢·now 96.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$315.72
$15.72
- NO
Will Tom Brady announce a presidential run before 2027?
285 shares @ 87.8¢·now 97.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$278.49
$28.48
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?
166 shares @ 90.6¢·now 97.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$161.62
$11.62
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
106 shares @ 94.0¢·now 97.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$103.52
$3.51
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 73°F or below on July 28?
76 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$75.66
$0.72
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on July 29?
71 shares @ 70.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$70.51
$20.88
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on July 29?
52 shares @ 96.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$51.97
$2.05
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 29?
51 shares @ 98.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$51.17
$1.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 42°C on July 29?
51 shares @ 98.0¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$50.60
$0.91
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on July 28?$5.00Jul 29, 04:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 28?$5.00Jul 29, 04:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 28?$5.00Jul 29, 04:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on July 28?$5.09Jul 29, 04:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on July 29?$49.99Jul 28, 23:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 28?$5.20Jul 28, 23:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 28?$6.30Jul 28, 23:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C or below on July 28?$5.09Jul 28, 23:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on July 28?$5.00Jul 28, 22:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 28?$5.09Jul 28, 22:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on July 28?$6.60Jul 28, 22:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on July 28?$5.09Jul 28, 22:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on July 28?$5.00Jul 28, 22:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on July 28?$5.80Jul 28, 22:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on July 28?$50.70Jul 28, 22:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 29?$4.90Jul 28, 21:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C or higher on July 26?$0.00Jul 28, 20:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on July 29?$5.98Jul 28, 19:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on July 29?$2.61Jul 28, 19:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on July 29?$0.45Jul 28, 19:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $14.87
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 12:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 04:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.