Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-1.3K

Realised

$-56.22

Win rate

41 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 41

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET
942 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026
$0.00
$-18.83
OVER
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5
400 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 29, 2026
$0.00
$-200.00
UNDER
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5
385 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026
$0.00
$-200.00
OVER
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5
241 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026
$0.00
$-130.00
LAKERS
Lakers vs. Thunder
231 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026
$0.00
$-30.00
TORONTO TEMPO
Toronto Tempo vs. Minnesota Lynx
200 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
OVER
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5
189 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026
$0.00
$-100.00
OVER
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5
146 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026
$0.00
$-70.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00

Recent activity

REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$0.00Aug 13, 20:32 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$5.26Aug 13, 20:27 UTC
TRADEBUYDallas Wings vs. Indiana Fever$10.34Aug 13, 20:26 UTC
TRADEBUYWashington Mystics vs. Las Vegas Aces$10.33Aug 13, 20:26 UTC
TRADEBUYLos Angeles Sparks vs. New York Liberty$10.38Aug 13, 20:26 UTC
TRADEBUYAtlanta Dream vs. Connecticut Sun$10.40Aug 13, 20:26 UTC
TRADEBUYConnecticut Sun vs. Washington Mystics$10.34Jul 28, 20:15 UTC
TRADEBUYToronto Tempo vs. Minnesota Lynx$20.90Jul 28, 20:15 UTC
TRADEBUYTeam Spoon vs. Team Coop$30.90Jul 25, 19:13 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?$10.27Jun 17, 05:51 UTC
TRADEBUYSpurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5$202.88Jun 6, 05:38 UTC
REDEEMKnicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5$140.63Jun 6, 03:45 UTC
TRADEBUYKnicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5$90.97Jun 4, 15:23 UTC
REDEEMKnicks vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5$405.25Jun 4, 03:35 UTC
TRADEBUYKnicks vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5$252.87Jun 2, 04:36 UTC
REDEEMSpurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5$185.19May 31, 03:05 UTC
TRADEBUYAtlanta Dream vs. PortlandFire: O/U 164.5$50.44May 30, 02:11 UTC
TRADEBUYSpurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5$101.38May 29, 17:15 UTC
TRADEBUYThunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5$203.00May 28, 09:27 UTC
REDEEMToronto Tempo vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 169.5$52.24May 28, 02:21 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

58/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 41 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

41 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity61 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry44 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk33 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 40
Avg trade size: $41.46
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 24, 03:58 UTC
Last active: Aug 13, 20:32 UTC
Win rate sample: 41 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 06:11:22 UTC·src:Polymarket Data