Medium-Spiral
0xc369247b649a9ac0f9d7a8e23cf4a6f0d6224e87
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
185
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-7.1K
Realised
$161.93
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 185- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?
50269 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-800.53
- YES
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?
17016 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-739.33
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
12000 shares @ 10.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.2K
- YES
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by February 28?
10000 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-66.47
- YES
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31?
9999 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-46.14
- YES
Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31?
5410 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-74.99
- YES
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?
5251 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-78.23
- YES
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 16?
4435 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-109.84
- YES
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.10ºC in July 2025?
4305 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-9.29
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March?
3500 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-17.44
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill any European country expel a U.S. ambassador by March 31?$0.46Mar 21, 14:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any European country expel a U.S. ambassador by March 31?$0.61Mar 21, 07:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any European country expel a U.S. ambassador by March 31?$1.76Mar 20, 23:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any European country expel a U.S. ambassador by March 31?$1.21Mar 20, 23:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any European country expel a U.S. ambassador by March 31?$2.80Mar 20, 23:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any European country expel a U.S. ambassador by March 31?$2.80Mar 20, 12:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYOdds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31?$2.44Mar 20, 08:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYOdds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31?$0.03Mar 20, 06:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYOdds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31?$0.08Mar 19, 19:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran claim responsibility for Oslo Embassy attack?$12.07Mar 19, 16:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran claim responsibility for Oslo Embassy attack?$2.92Mar 19, 16:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYOdds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31?$0.03Mar 19, 06:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March?$0.07Mar 19, 06:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March?$0.10Mar 19, 06:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March?$0.63Mar 19, 06:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March?$0.60Mar 19, 06:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March?$0.05Mar 19, 06:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March?$0.62Mar 19, 06:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March?$0.10Mar 19, 06:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March?$0.09Mar 19, 05:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.66
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 18, 15:43 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 21, 14:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.