Glum-Vol
0xc389f2056c83f5ea25a097cd0934b36fbb04ec7d
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
65
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-458.29
Realised
$2.70
Win rate
33%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 65- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $113K July 28–August 3?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by Monday?
9718 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2025$0.00
$-19.44
- YES
Another successful Houthi attack on shipping in July?
4350 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-9.40
- YES
Ukraine hits Moscow by July 31?
4000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Thailand strikes Cambodia by Friday?
3466 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2025$0.00
$-11.98
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
2828 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$0.00
$-6.49
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting?
2205 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2025$0.00
$-2.94
- YES
Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 18–25?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 18–25?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 18–25?
2000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2025$0.00
$-6.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during September press conference?$10.01Sep 17, 18:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pafos FC win on 2025-09-17?$5.00Sep 17, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the UK state banquet on September 17?$7.00Sep 17, 18:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Powell say "Trump" during September press conference?$14.00Sep 17, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Powell say "Median" during September press conference?$14.00Sep 17, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during September press conference?$10.00Sep 17, 18:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 20+ times during September press conference?$11.00Sep 17, 18:06 UTC
- TRADESELLFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?$71.00Sep 17, 18:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?$65.99Sep 16, 09:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting?$1.99Sep 15, 10:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting?$2.00Sep 15, 10:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?$15.91Sep 15, 09:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025?$1.55Sep 13, 23:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025?$1.00Sep 13, 23:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025?$1.00Sep 13, 23:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025?$2.55Sep 13, 18:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?$3.12Sep 13, 12:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $119K September 8–14?$5.00Sep 11, 22:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sky win the USDH ticker?$0.32Sep 11, 19:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sky win the USDH ticker?$0.12Sep 11, 19:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $16.26
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 22, 20:25 UTC
- Last active
- Sep 17, 18:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.