0xc3a76f96c19ba9f88a620a305bb077c1ee3e8102
0xc3a76f96c19ba9f88a620a305bb077c1ee3e8102
Wallet digest
Activity score
45/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
49
Open notional
$22.17
Total PnL
$-747.27
Realised
$-337.58
Win rate
3%
36 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 49- LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
21 shares @ 55.7¢·now 50.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$10.67
$-1.21
- YES
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
354 shares @ 2.8¢·now 1.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$6.55
$-3.35
- YES
Ethereum above 2,230 on April 29, 11PM ET?
5 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$4.95
$0.05
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
4950 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-14.85
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET
620 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-21.77
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET
198 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.98
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
155 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-5.94
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET
136 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-2.72
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 10AM ET
131 shares @ 13.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-17.76
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2PM ET
92 shares @ 60.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-55.68
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Solana reach $80 on July 16?$5.00Jul 17, 04:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana reach $80 on July 16?$5.00Jul 16, 10:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $67,000 on July 15?$2.23Jul 16, 04:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $2,000 on July 15?$4.74Jul 16, 04:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,000 on July 15?$4.74Jul 15, 21:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $2,000 on July 15?$4.74Jul 15, 21:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $67,000 on July 15?$2.17Jul 15, 09:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,000 on July 15?$5.00Jul 15, 09:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $1,900 on July 14?$6.27Jul 15, 04:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $1,900 on July 14?$0.02Jul 15, 02:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $1,900 on July 14?$0.01Jul 15, 02:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $1,900 on July 14?$0.02Jul 15, 02:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $1,900 on July 14?$0.01Jul 15, 02:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $1,900 on July 14?$0.02Jul 15, 02:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $1,900 on July 14?$0.01Jul 15, 02:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $1,900 on July 14?$0.02Jul 15, 02:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $1,900 on July 14?$0.02Jul 15, 02:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $1,900 on July 14?$0.01Jul 15, 02:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $1,900 on July 14?$0.02Jul 15, 02:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $1,900 on July 14?$0.02Jul 15, 02:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
62/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
3% win rate over 36 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
36 closed markets, 3% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $0.50
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 22:38 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 17, 04:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 36 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.