Muddy-Kilometer
0xc3b580d3b1612e8728de75a8332d49997d3ba720
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
13
Open notional
$8.62
Total PnL
$-40.39
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- NO
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
2 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$1.55
$0.00
- NO
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$1.40
$-0.00
- NO
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by July 31?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.31
$0.00
- NO
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.20
$-0.00
- NO
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.15
$0.00
- NO
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
1 shares @ 99.0¢·now 99.6¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.01
$0.01
- NO
2026 Balance of Power: Other
1 shares @ 99.1¢·now 99.4¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.00
$0.00
- OVER
Flyers vs. Islanders: O/U 7.5
120 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$0.00
$-24.00
- UNDER
Blues vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5
19 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- SHARKS
Spread: Sharks (-1.5)
4 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.17
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?$1.55Jul 28, 23:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on July 28?$1.30Jul 28, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on July 28?$1.30Jul 27, 23:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by July 31?$1.31Jul 26, 14:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$1.20Jul 24, 23:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana dip to $10 in June?$1.50Jul 1, 06:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June?$1.21Jul 1, 06:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 30?$1.25Jun 30, 16:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 30?$1.25Jun 29, 20:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 26?$1.14Jun 26, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 26?$1.14Jun 24, 23:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?$1.30Jun 23, 18:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 15-21?$2.10Jun 22, 04:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?$1.30Jun 21, 14:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 15-21?$2.10Jun 20, 17:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June?$1.20Jun 19, 23:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026?$1.15Jun 17, 21:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana dip to $10 in June?$1.50Jun 16, 23:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$1.00May 24, 23:30 UTC
- TRADEBUY2026 Balance of Power: Other$1.00May 21, 17:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $1.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 18, 18:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 23:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.