Innocent-Hobby
0xc3be5b393289c7eac68e2687cd117055254e8ea1
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
5
Open notional
$7.71
Total PnL
$-2.29
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by April 30?
4 shares @ 56.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2025$3.57
$1.57
- NO
Will Kanye launch a coin in March?
3 shares @ 70.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2025$2.86
$0.86
- NO
Will Trump say "Victory" three or more times in his speech after the election is called?
1 shares @ 78.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2024$1.28
$0.28
- NO
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?
11 shares @ 38.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2025$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Solana above $145 on March 14?
4 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by April 30?$2.00Mar 9, 14:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kanye launch a coin in March?$2.00Mar 9, 14:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?$4.00Mar 9, 14:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana above $145 on March 14?$1.00Mar 9, 14:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Mail-in" in his speech after the election is called?$2.25Mar 9, 14:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Steal", "Stealing", "Stole", or "Stolen" in his speech after the election is called?$2.33Mar 9, 14:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" in his speech after the election is called?$2.21Mar 9, 14:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Fraud" in his speech after the election is called?$0.00Mar 9, 14:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Rig" or "Rigged" in his speech after the election is called?$2.20Mar 9, 14:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Victory" three or more times in his speech after the election is called?$1.00Nov 10, 16:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Mail-in" in his speech after the election is called?$2.00Nov 10, 16:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Steal", "Stealing", "Stole", or "Stolen" in his speech after the election is called?$2.00Nov 10, 16:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" in his speech after the election is called?$2.00Nov 10, 16:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Fraud" in his speech after the election is called?$2.00Nov 10, 16:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Rig" or "Rigged" in his speech after the election is called?$2.00Nov 10, 16:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "trans" during Greensboro, NC rally?$2.11Nov 10, 16:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Greensboro, NC rally?$1.16Nov 10, 16:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "garbage truck" during Greensboro, NC rally?$1.45Nov 10, 16:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Venezuela" or "Venezuelan" 5 or more during Greensboro, NC rally?$1.53Nov 10, 16:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "North Carolina" 20 or more during Greensboro, NC rally?$0.00Nov 10, 16:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $1.56
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 22, 15:58 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 9, 14:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.