Plain-Enforcement
0xc3d41e9534b1fc0fccb35b711b62a9d26257ca86
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
101
Open notional
$67.39
Total PnL
$-530.08
Realised
$6.15
Win rate
90%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 101- NO
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
10 shares @ 70.0¢·now 95.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$9.50
$2.50
- NO
Natural Disaster in 2026?
10 shares @ 55.0¢·now 82.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.20
$2.70
- NO
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between thirteen and fifteen nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
8 shares @ 72.0¢·now 84.9¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$7.06
$1.07
- YES
Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1.0%?
10 shares @ 25.0¢·now 70.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2027$7.00
$4.50
- YES
Will UK annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 0% and 1%?
10 shares @ 20.0¢·now 48.5¢·exp Feb 12, 2027$4.85
$2.85
- YES
Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.0% and 2.0%?
33 shares @ 45.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2027$4.74
$-9.97
- YES
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between four and six nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
5 shares @ 30.0¢·now 79.7¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$3.98
$2.48
- YES
Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
70 shares @ 11.0¢·now 5.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.96
$-3.75
- YES
Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
100 shares @ 13.3¢·now 3.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.45
$-9.85
- NO
Kristi Noem impeached in 2026?
4 shares @ 83.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.16
$0.18
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 20, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYArgentina vs. Cabo Verde: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? AND Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance$10.00Jul 4, 00:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYArgentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance$10.20Jul 4, 00:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Argentina (-4.5)$1.03Jul 3, 22:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$10.24Jul 3, 22:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYArgentina vs. Cabo Verde: Argentina O/U 1.5 AND Lionel Messi: 1+ assists AND Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Will the Match Go to Extra Time? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? AND Argentina to score first vs. Cabo Verde?$9.99Jul 3, 21:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?$20.50Jun 18, 18:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYSwitzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5)$1.03Jun 18, 18:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?$1.03Jun 18, 18:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?$10.27Jun 18, 18:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina?$6.17Jun 18, 18:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Switzerland 0 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina?$2.06Jun 18, 18:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina?$5.13Jun 18, 18:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?$5.13Jun 18, 18:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYSwitzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First Half$5.12Jun 18, 18:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYSwitzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5$10.28Jun 18, 18:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
90% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $9.13
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 24, 15:34 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.