0xc3d7bbbadd69b010952c461b8a3f437f1ca5568c
0xc3d7bbbadd69b010952c461b8a3f437f1ca5568c
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$15.99
Total PnL
$-1.94
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Trump say "Sister" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
3 shares @ 65.0¢·now 80.5¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$2.45
$0.47
- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
4 shares @ 57.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.12
$0.09
- YES
Will Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?
3 shares @ 77.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$1.94
$-0.01
- NO
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $76 Week of July 27 2026?
2 shares @ 80.0¢·now 92.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.86
$0.24
- NO
Will Robinhood (HOOD) beat quarterly earnings?
8 shares @ 25.0¢·now 22.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$1.80
$-0.20
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
2 shares @ 78.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.73
$0.15
- NO
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
3 shares @ 50.2¢·now 50.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.53
$-0.00
- YES
Another pandemic before GTA VI?
3 shares @ 50.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.51
$-0.02
- NO
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of July 27 2026?
3 shares @ 56.0¢·now 34.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.04
$-0.67
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?
9 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$2.03Jul 28, 12:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?$1.57Jul 27, 23:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?$3.40Jul 27, 19:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of July 27 2026?$1.74Jul 27, 14:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $76 Week of July 27 2026?$1.63Jul 27, 01:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Robinhood (HOOD) beat quarterly earnings?$2.08Jul 26, 13:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother pandemic before GTA VI?$1.57Jul 26, 01:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Sister" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?$2.01Jul 25, 12:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Transgender" during White House Correspondents Dinner?$2.70Jul 25, 07:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?$3.57Jul 25, 05:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?$1.57Jul 25, 00:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?$0.00Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Transgender" during White House Correspondents Dinner?$2.02Jul 24, 12:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?$1.93Jul 24, 00:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "Good day" during July Press Conference?$1.97Jul 23, 12:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?$1.33Jul 23, 00:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$13.43Jul 22, 18:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$2.00Jul 22, 12:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?$0.00Jul 22, 09:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$10.20Jul 22, 00:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $2.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 10, 08:22 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 12:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.