0xc3d95e16bf747e51b6819060ed08f97aa7e772aa
0xc3d95e16bf747e51b6819060ed08f97aa7e772aa
Wallet digest
Activity score
37/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
12
Open notional
$51.98
Total PnL
$-383.34
Realised
$-18.42
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
Will Alianza para el Progreso (APP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election?
52 shares @ 87.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$51.98
$6.76
- YES
Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.1% in January?
310 shares @ 55.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-173.02
- TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS
Oregon vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
200 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-98.00
- YES
Will "Ricky Gervais: Mortality" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)
96 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-4.15
- YES
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
61 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-4.27
- NO
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?
51 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-18.02
- YES
Will "Ricky Gervais: Mortality" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)
50 shares @ 63.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-31.60
- TEAM NEMESIS
Dota 2: Ivory vs Team Nemesis (BO3)
45 shares @ 47.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-21.50
- YES
Will "The Rip" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (February 10)
23 shares @ 8.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.91
- YES
Will Bad Bunny have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?
18 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-8.45
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jun 14, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Man I Need by Olivia Dean be the Billboard #1 song for the week of February 14?$0.25Jun 13, 16:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?$0.35Jun 13, 16:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?$0.95Jun 13, 16:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?$0.99Jun 13, 16:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Daniel Cameron be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?$1.00Jun 13, 16:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?$1.99Jun 13, 16:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?$12.15Jun 13, 16:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Choosin’ Texas by Ella Langley be the Billboard #1 song for the week of February 14?$14.10Jun 13, 16:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill KPop Demon Hunters win Best Animated Feature at the 2026 Critics Choice Awards?$34.00Jun 13, 16:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?$59.42Jun 13, 16:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026$66.10Jun 13, 16:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill annual inflation increase by 2.5% in January?$319.67Jun 13, 16:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Man I Need by Olivia Dean be the Billboard #1 song for the week of February 14?$0.00Jun 13, 16:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?$0.00Jun 13, 16:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?$0.00Jun 13, 16:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?$0.00Jun 13, 16:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Daniel Cameron be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?$0.00Jun 13, 16:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?$0.00Jun 13, 16:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?$0.00Jun 13, 16:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
2 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 74/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 2
- Avg trade size
- $12.27
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 4, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.