Thoughtful-Civilian
0xc3fce9e1cdc13ee028678f24d60d5935e82260ba
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
7
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-637.35
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Israel strikes Yemen again by August 31?
353 shares @ 90.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2025$0.00
$-317.48
- YES
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?
183 shares @ 56.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-102.39
- YES
Will Trump say "Tariff" 3+ times during Xi events on October 29?
96 shares @ 51.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-50.00
- NO
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during "60 Minutes" on November 2?
69 shares @ 87.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 2, 2025$0.00
$-60.00
- NO
Will Trump say "Shit" this week? (August 25 - 31)
62 shares @ 78.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2025$0.00
$-48.05
- YES
Will Trump say "Congratulate" or "Congratulations" during events with Polish president on September 3?
53 shares @ 75.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 3, 2025$0.00
$-40.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during "60 Minutes" on November 2?
24 shares @ 80.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 2, 2025$0.00
$-19.43
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the government shutdown last 5 days or more?$102.39Feb 2, 19:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Christian Menefee win TX-18 Special Election?$102.39Feb 2, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Christian Menefee win TX-18 Special Election?$87.77Jan 17, 18:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Uber say "Innovation" during earnings call?$23.26Jan 17, 17:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Crooked Hillary" during "60 Minutes" on November 2?$64.52Jan 17, 17:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during "60 Minutes" on November 2?$19.43Nov 2, 16:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Crooked Hillary" during "60 Minutes" on November 2?$60.00Nov 2, 16:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during "60 Minutes" on November 2?$60.00Nov 2, 16:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Roku say "Hour" during earnings call?$0.00Nov 2, 16:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple say "Siri" during earnings call?$0.00Nov 2, 16:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Xi events on October 29?$0.00Nov 2, 16:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Roku say "Hour" during earnings call?$17.13Nov 2, 16:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple say "Siri" during earnings call?$21.05Nov 2, 16:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Xi events on October 29?$101.24Nov 2, 16:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Roku say "Hour" during earnings call?$15.49Oct 30, 02:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple say "Siri" during earnings call?$20.00Oct 30, 02:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Uber say "Innovation" during earnings call?$20.00Oct 30, 02:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Tariff" 3+ times during Xi events on October 29?$50.00Oct 30, 02:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Xi events on October 29?$100.00Oct 30, 02:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Powell say "Good afternoon" during October press conference?$95.60Oct 30, 02:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 22
- Avg trade size
- $70.21
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Sep 6, 03:44 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 2, 19:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".