Homely-Estimate
0xc402769fbb1531e75b720d8a3fe6250276e49041
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
15
Open notional
$58.33
Total PnL
$-42.30
Realised
$0.03
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?
28 shares @ 71.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$28.17
$8.17
- NO
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31?
16 shares @ 63.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$15.87
$5.87
- YES
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75%?
14 shares @ 70.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$14.29
$4.29
- NO
Major cyberattack on Iran in June?
632 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?
119 shares @ 8.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
50 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will 'The Life of a Showgirl' be #1 for 8 straight weeks?
45 shares @ 4.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July?
43 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase November 4-10?
38 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 11, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
36 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?$20.00Dec 21, 13:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold close at $3,100-3,200 at the end of 2025?$0.50Dec 21, 13:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold close at $3,100-3,200 at the end of 2025?$1.00Dec 21, 13:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?$10.00Dec 21, 13:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?$10.20Dec 21, 13:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Infinex launch a token in 2025?$11.01Dec 3, 13:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?$5.00Dec 3, 11:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Polymarket mindshare hit 75%?$10.00Nov 27, 10:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 'The Life of a Showgirl' be #1 for 8 straight weeks?$2.00Nov 27, 10:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?$5.00Nov 27, 09:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Infinex launch a token in 2025?$10.00Nov 15, 15:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zcash hit $1000 by December 31?$10.00Nov 15, 14:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?$10.00Nov 6, 12:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase November 4-10?$10.00Nov 4, 13:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump and Xi shake hands for 10 seconds or more on October 30, 2025?$75.00Oct 30, 11:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Xi shake hands for 10 seconds or more on October 30, 2025?$1.40Oct 29, 12:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Xi shake hands for 10 seconds or more on October 30, 2025?$3.94Oct 29, 12:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Xi shake hands for 10 seconds or more on October 30, 2025?$1.40Oct 29, 12:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Xi shake hands for 10 seconds or more on October 30, 2025?$2.80Oct 29, 12:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Xi shake hands for 10 seconds or more on October 30, 2025?$0.96Oct 29, 12:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $9.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 5, 16:16 UTC
- Last active
- Dec 21, 13:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.