Educated-Smell
0xc4166601556e9ed313d0ab9548f914ec87443704
Wallet digest
Activity score
31/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-693.60
Realised
$-118.47
Win rate
3%
193 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C or higher on May 27?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C or higher on May 21?
200 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-2.40
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on May 23?
200 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.20
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C or higher on May 21?
200 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-2.60
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C or below on June 8?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C or higher on May 22?
200 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.80
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on May 22?
200 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.20
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C or below on May 22?
194 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-2.49
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or higher on June 1?
188 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.13
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C or higher on May 20?
185 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.59
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET$67.41Aug 19, 18:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET$37.57Aug 19, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET$35.63Aug 19, 15:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET$34.27Aug 19, 15:32 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET$69.06Aug 19, 15:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET$34.36Aug 19, 15:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET$35.66Aug 19, 14:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$17.63Aug 19, 13:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$38.21Aug 19, 13:34 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET$70.95Aug 19, 13:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET$39.58Aug 19, 13:18 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$19.37Aug 18, 14:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET$8.47Aug 18, 14:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$10.41Aug 18, 14:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$37.00Aug 18, 13:34 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET$64.90Aug 17, 15:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET$33.59Aug 17, 15:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET$42.14Aug 17, 12:32 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET$130.00Aug 17, 12:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET$35.55Aug 17, 11:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
3% win rate over 193 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
193 closed markets, 3% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $13.88
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 13, 11:30 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 19, 18:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 193 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.