Wallet digest

active

Activity score

36/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$2.22

Total PnL

$-57.62

Realised

$-28.84

Win rate

27 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 27

NO
Will Columbus Crew win on 2026-02-28?
2 shares @ 45.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026
$2.22
$1.22
NO
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18?
9 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
NO
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-02-28?
8 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
NO
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17?
7 shares @ 45.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00
YES
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-28?
5 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
NO
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18?
4 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
YES
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17?
3 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
NO
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18?
3 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
NO
Will AC Milan win on 2026-03-01?
3 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
NO
Will Brentford FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw?
3 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00

Recent activity

REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET$0.00Jul 28, 21:31 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET$1.03Jul 28, 21:23 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET$0.00Jul 28, 19:30 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET$1.03Jul 28, 19:13 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET$1.82Jul 28, 00:30 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET$1.03Jul 28, 00:03 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET$0.00Jul 27, 21:01 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET$1.03Jul 27, 20:23 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET$0.00Jul 27, 20:01 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET$1.03Jul 27, 19:46 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET$0.00Jul 27, 18:01 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET$1.03Jul 27, 17:47 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET$1.56Jul 27, 17:01 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET$1.03Jul 27, 16:50 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$1.23Jul 27, 13:31 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$1.01Jul 27, 13:22 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET$1.59Jul 27, 10:01 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET$1.03Jul 27, 09:53 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET$1.35Jul 27, 01:31 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET$1.02Jul 27, 01:22 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

55/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

4% win rate over 27 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

25 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

27 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity65 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence90 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry70 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk47 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 25
Avg trade size: $0.99
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 22, 12:17 UTC
Last active: Jul 28, 21:31 UTC
Win rate sample: 27 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 04:54:09 UTC·src:Polymarket Data