Truthful-Level
0xc427980d20632c60c5a43fb689540c7f6f776f4d
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
65
Open notional
$4.8K
Total PnL
$-4.7K
Realised
$708.23
Win rate
50%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 65- YES
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?
1362 shares @ 50.5¢·now 52.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$715.22
$26.81
- YES
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?
2000 shares @ 36.5¢·now 34.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$689.80
$-40.20
- YES
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?
4064 shares @ 14.9¢·now 14.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$589.33
$-16.45
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?
2000 shares @ 20.0¢·now 28.8¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$577.00
$177.00
- YES
Will USD/JPY hit 170 (High) in 2026?
1254 shares @ 30.0¢·now 36.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$451.31
$75.54
- NO
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of July?
742 shares @ 58.1¢·now 60.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$448.94
$17.82
- YES
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by September 30?
1338 shares @ 29.5¢·now 33.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$441.67
$46.84
- YES
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by September 30?
955 shares @ 35.0¢·now 36.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$348.59
$14.33
- YES
Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by August 31?
1831 shares @ 19.8¢·now 14.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$256.29
$-106.13
- YES
Will USD be at least 1.9M Iranian rials on July 31?
143 shares @ 40.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$109.56
$52.27
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of July?$440.50Jul 29, 19:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX (SPCX) close above $90 end of July?$29.89Jul 29, 19:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of July?$147.36Jul 29, 19:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of July?$229.39Jul 29, 19:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of July?$6.34Jul 29, 19:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of July?$6.39Jul 29, 19:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of July?$200.37Jul 29, 19:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$400.00Jul 29, 19:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 in July?$33.30Jul 29, 18:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in July?$8.13Jul 29, 18:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of July?$12.56Jul 29, 16:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of July?$658.88Jul 29, 14:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of July?$32.03Jul 29, 14:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of July?$15.99Jul 29, 14:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30?$175.10Jul 29, 13:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of July?$212.31Jul 29, 13:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill USD be at least 1.9M Iranian rials on July 31?$2.50Jul 29, 09:19 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.81Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$1.59Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- REWARD$1.32Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $226.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 21:03 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 19:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.