Misguided-Stupidity
0xc42bdfeb82ebf43be2f9e49cd87354bebbffce96
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-313.63
Realised
$13.99
Win rate
47%
32 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Egypt win on 2026-01-05?
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 5, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Benin win on 2026-01-05?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on January 12?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 1320-1359 tweets in January 2026?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?
175 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- ROYER
Hong Kong Tennis Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Valentin Royer
125 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-01-03?
125 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in January 2026?
123 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 10?
111 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 January 5-11?
111 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET$1.37Jul 10, 21:58 UTC
- TRADESELLDogecoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$0.25Jul 10, 21:53 UTC
- TRADESELLDogecoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$0.16Jul 10, 21:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$1.04Jul 10, 21:50 UTC
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$0.00Jul 10, 21:50 UTC
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$1.05Jul 10, 21:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$1.00Jul 10, 21:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$1.05Jul 10, 21:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$1.06Jul 10, 21:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$1.05Jul 10, 21:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$1.06Jul 10, 21:36 UTC
- TRADESELLDogecoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$1.13Jul 10, 21:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$1.06Jul 10, 21:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$1.05Jul 10, 21:26 UTC
- TRADESELLDogecoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$0.65Jul 10, 21:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$1.06Jul 10, 21:12 UTC
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$0.00Jul 10, 21:11 UTC
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$2.78Jul 10, 21:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$1.04Jul 10, 21:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$1.04Jul 10, 21:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
47% win rate over 32 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 23/100.
32 closed markets, 47% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $1.14
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 10, 20:02 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 10, 21:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 32 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.