Knowledgeable-Party
0xc43180b371fb0e342f2e78e7fdb51b36cff63bf8
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
40
Open notional
$0.86
Total PnL
$-40.00
Realised
$3.73
Win rate
85%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 40- YES
Gemini 4.0 released by July 31, 2026?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.63
$-0.38
- YES
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 26, 2026?
239 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.24
$0.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C or below on December 25?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 25, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on January 9?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 3 of the 2026 flu season be between 50 and 60?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on January 7?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on January 9?
986 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-0.99
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on January 30?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 54-55°F on February 1?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump and Netanyahu not shake hands by February 13, 2026?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYGemini 4.0 released by July 31, 2026?$0.38Jul 22, 16:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYGemini 4.0 released by July 31, 2026?$0.62Jul 21, 16:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 26, 2026?$0.04Jul 16, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 26, 2026?$0.20Jul 16, 18:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?$0.00Feb 15, 17:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 15?$0.75Feb 14, 22:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?$0.50Feb 14, 22:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 15?$1.05Feb 14, 22:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?$1.00Feb 14, 22:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?$2.45Feb 14, 22:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?$2.40Feb 14, 22:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?$2.20Feb 14, 22:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?$2.15Feb 14, 22:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on February 15?$0.45Feb 14, 22:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?$0.36Feb 14, 22:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?$1.74Feb 14, 22:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?$1.30Feb 14, 22:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on February 15?$0.31Feb 14, 22:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)?$0.96Feb 14, 21:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)?$0.04Feb 14, 21:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
85% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 14, 17:08 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 16:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.