Robust-Linen
0xc441333650619f04aff3d741d4c3357666bacc86
Wallet digest
Activity score
39/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
14
Open notional
$6.12
Total PnL
$-9.90
Realised
$-0.28
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET
6 shares @ 49.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$6.12
$3.12
- YES
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in January 2026?
52 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.25
- YES
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in January 2026?
28 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.95
- YES
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in January 2026?
24 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-0.38
- YES
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.00ºC in January 2026?
22 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-0.40
- YES
Will January 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?
15 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-0.20
- YES
Will there be less than 5 inches of snow in D.C. in January?
10 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-0.21
- YES
Will there be 15-17 inches of snow in D.C. in January?
10 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.20
- NO
Will January 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?
10 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-0.49
- YES
Will there be 5-7 inches of snow in D.C. in January?
10 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-0.21
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$3.11Aug 12, 08:53 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$2.34Aug 10, 20:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$2.07Aug 10, 20:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$2.07Aug 10, 20:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$2.10Aug 10, 20:51 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$2.56Aug 10, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$2.06Aug 10, 20:49 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$0.65Aug 10, 20:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$3.16Aug 10, 20:47 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$14.32Aug 10, 20:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$10.35Aug 10, 20:43 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$0.62Feb 19, 14:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$1.28Feb 19, 14:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in January 2026?$1.35Feb 4, 00:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill global temperature increase by less than 1.00ºC in January 2026?$0.15Jan 29, 16:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill global temperature increase by less than 1.00ºC in January 2026?$0.05Jan 29, 16:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill global temperature increase by less than 1.00ºC in January 2026?$0.13Jan 29, 16:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill global temperature increase by less than 1.00ºC in January 2026?$0.07Jan 29, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill January 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?$0.10Jan 28, 16:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill January 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?$0.10Jan 28, 16:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
14/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $1.44
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 27, 00:25 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 12, 08:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.