Lustrous-Dip
0xc44cbea0ef42f986b5b9b77caa6f1aebb9c148a4
Wallet digest
Activity score
35/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
18
Open notional
$103.95
Total PnL
$-51.35
Realised
$-28.25
Win rate
0%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- NO
Will Casemiro join Al-Nassr?
25 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Sep 2, 2026$24.57
$-0.01
- NO
Will Casemiro join Galatasaray?
25 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.7¢·exp Sep 2, 2026$24.52
$-0.04
- NO
Will Casemiro join Juventus?
6 shares @ 99.1¢·now 99.2¢·exp Sep 2, 2026$5.52
$0.01
- NO
Will Casemiro join Al-Hilal?
6 shares @ 99.3¢·now 99.3¢·exp Sep 2, 2026$5.51
$-0.00
- NO
Will Deandre Ayton play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?
4 shares @ 98.0¢·now 99.9¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$4.23
$0.08
- NO
Will Deandre Ayton play for the Charlotte Hornets in 2026-27?
4 shares @ 98.0¢·now 99.9¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$4.23
$0.08
- NO
Will Deandre Ayton play for the Houston Rockets in 2026-27?
4 shares @ 98.0¢·now 99.9¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$4.23
$0.08
- NO
Will Deandre Ayton play for the Utah Jazz in 2026-27?
4 shares @ 98.0¢·now 99.8¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$4.23
$0.08
- NO
Will Deandre Ayton play for the LA Clippers in 2026-27?
4 shares @ 98.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$4.23
$0.07
- NO
Will Deandre Ayton play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27?
4 shares @ 98.0¢·now 98.6¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$4.18
$0.02
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Hong Kong have between 350-375mm of precipitation in June?$1.22Jul 2, 04:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Hong Kong have between 425-450mm of precipitation in June?$1.22Jul 2, 04:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Hong Kong have less than 350mm of precipitation in June?$1.16Jul 2, 04:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Hong Kong have between 400-425mm of precipitation in June?$1.22Jul 2, 04:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Hong Kong have between 375-400mm of precipitation in June?$1.15Jul 2, 04:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Seattle have between 1 and 1.5 inches of precipitation in June?$5.07Jul 1, 19:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Seattle have between 2.5 and 3 inches of precipitation in June?$5.80Jul 1, 19:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Seattle have more than 3 inches of precipitation in June?$5.92Jul 1, 19:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in June?$5.06Jul 1, 19:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Seattle have less than 0.5 inches of precipitation in June?$6.05Jul 1, 19:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Seattle have between 2 and 2.5 inches of precipitation in June?$5.80Jul 1, 19:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill NYC have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in June?$5.92Jul 1, 19:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in June?$5.06Jul 1, 19:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Congo DR be the highest-scoring team in Group K during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.00Jul 1, 02:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Uzbekistan be the highest-scoring team in Group K during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.00Jul 1, 02:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Scotland be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?$0.00Jul 1, 02:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Meituan have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?$0.00Jul 1, 02:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill ByteDance have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?$0.00Jul 1, 02:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Z.ai have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?$0.00Jul 1, 02:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alibaba have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?$0.00Jul 1, 02:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 30, 18:06 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 2, 04:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.