Innocent-Rush
0xc451017789fcf171e04a0e42d5e0bf083c2f2609
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
7
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-23.6K
Realised
$-5.3K
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?
13838 shares @ 28.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-3.9K
- NO
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?
13722 shares @ 32.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-4.4K
- YES
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?
12521 shares @ 64.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-8.1K
- NO
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?
2954 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 11, 2025$0.00
$-827.45
- YES
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?
1767 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 15, 2025$0.00
$-865.81
- YES
Will Google have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?
558 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-145.08
- YES
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?
345 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TAKER_REBATE$10.00Jul 9, 21:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?$0.22Jul 5, 04:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$36.8KJul 5, 04:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$4.2KMar 5, 05:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Marty Supreme make 70 million or more domestically by January 31?$100.24Mar 3, 06:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by?$378.51Mar 3, 06:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$2.2KMar 3, 06:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31?$10.2KMar 3, 06:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?$2.8KMar 2, 11:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?$1.67Feb 10, 16:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?$30.42Feb 10, 12:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?$1.00Feb 10, 11:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?$119.12Feb 10, 10:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?$157.40Feb 6, 18:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?$53.98Feb 6, 18:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?$102.00Jan 5, 07:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?$2.00Jan 5, 02:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?$120.80Jan 4, 19:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?$9.00Jan 3, 11:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?$157.53Jan 3, 10:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$36.9K
Trades
1
Buy share
0%
Window
Jul 5, 04:30 UTC → Jul 5, 04:27 UTC
- SELLWill Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$36.9K@93¢Jul 5, 04:27 UTC
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
43 live trades, 1 ledger trades, copy-risk 64/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$36.9K
1 trades
Buy share
0%
Sample
low
1 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
$36.9K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $1.1K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 1, 15:31 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 9, 21:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.