Fickle-Frosting
0xc4604b6f956bbe2179d6d102bedc8c06f02c0aa4
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$5.2K
Total PnL
$-4.1K
Realised
$280.34
Win rate
78%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
7968 shares @ 62.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.0K
$39.85
- YES
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
7265 shares @ 0.9¢·now 1.3¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$94.44
$27.39
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?
121 shares @ 49.6¢·now 48.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$58.57
$-1.37
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?
102 shares @ 35.9¢·now 36.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$37.23
$0.59
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
101 shares @ 27.9¢·now 26.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$26.64
$-1.36
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
59 shares @ 29.0¢·now 28.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.70
$-0.30
- YES
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
889 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.9¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$7.56
$-0.44
- YES
Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
96 shares @ 2.9¢·now 1.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.15
$-1.65
- YES
Will there be exactly 3 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
72 shares @ 4.2¢·now 0.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.58
$-2.42
- YES
Will there be exactly 4 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
59 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.38
$-2.42
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?$10.00Jun 4, 15:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$4.9KJun 4, 15:49 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$5.0KJun 4, 15:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?$17.00Jun 4, 05:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$28.00Jun 4, 05:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?$36.00Jun 4, 05:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?$49.00Jun 4, 05:00 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$330.00Jun 4, 04:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$7.22Jun 3, 19:29 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?$7.21Jun 3, 10:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$7.99Jun 3, 04:28 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?$8.05Jun 3, 04:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?$8.00Jun 2, 03:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?$8.00Jun 2, 03:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$8.24Jun 1, 17:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$8.24Jun 1, 17:17 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$534.35Jun 1, 14:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$45.62Jun 1, 12:21 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?$45.64Jun 1, 12:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$1.4KMay 30, 06:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $386.21
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 12, 04:20 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 4, 15:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".