Murky-Policy
0xc461f813d70f91299d8b7603bc27c5e62a60c1bf
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
46
Open notional
$105.95
Total PnL
$-258.43
Realised
$5.43
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 46- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
38 shares @ 80.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$35.44
$5.44
- NO
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
30 shares @ 80.3¢·now 95.7¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$28.69
$4.59
- YES
Blue tsunami in 2026?
29 shares @ 35.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$12.71
$2.71
- NO
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
10 shares @ 93.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$10.00
$0.62
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
10 shares @ 87.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.55
$0.85
- YES
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
10 shares @ 75.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$5.55
$-1.95
- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
5 shares @ 74.0¢·now 80.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.00
$0.30
- YES
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday?
5200 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-98.32
- YES
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
105 shares @ 10.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-11.45
- YES
Will Apple be the most valuable company on October 31?
100 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.10
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:21 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:21 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 2, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 1, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 30, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 29, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 28, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 27, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 26, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 25, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 24, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 23, 00:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 24, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.