Noteworthy-Lesson
0xc487b2d38ab97fe26b0a7d2e92a80f34e181c383
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-427.63
Realised
$-27.28
Win rate
0%
200 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen end in a draw?
18 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw?
18 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.98
- YES
Will Galatasaray SK vs. Antalyaspor end in a draw?
17 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Gil Vicente FC vs. FC Arouca end in a draw?
16 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will CD Nacional vs. AVS Futebol end in a draw?
14 shares @ 13.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.95
- YES
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Stade Brestois 29 end in a draw?
14 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will FC Porto vs. FC Alverca end in a draw?
13 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Como 1907 vs. Parma Calcio 1913 end in a draw?
13 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will RB Leipzig vs. FC St. Pauli 1910 end in a draw?
13 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will CD Santa Clara vs. CD Nacional end in a draw?
13 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Club Necaxa vs. Club León FC end in a draw?$2.05Aug 18, 01:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Real Sporting de Gijón vs. CE Sabadell FC end in a draw?$5.60Aug 17, 21:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill AA Estudiantes vs. CA Tucumán end in a draw?$1.96Aug 17, 18:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Real Sporting de Gijón vs. CE Sabadell FC end in a draw?$2.02Aug 17, 17:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Club Tijuana vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw?$1.92Aug 17, 03:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Seattle Sounders FC vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC end in a draw?$1.96Aug 17, 03:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Club Santos Laguna vs. CD Guadalajara end in a draw?$2.06Aug 17, 01:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Austin FC vs. FC Dallas end in a draw?$1.80Aug 17, 01:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CA Barracas Central vs. CA Rosario Central end in a draw?$2.06Aug 17, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CA Central Córdoba vs. Instituto AC Córdoba end in a draw?$1.93Aug 16, 23:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CF América vs. Atlético San Luis end in a draw?$1.96Aug 16, 23:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SC Corinthians Paulista vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw?$1.93Aug 16, 22:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill Pumas de la UNAM vs. Querétaro FC end in a draw?$6.00Aug 16, 22:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Girona FC vs. CD Leganés end in a draw?$6.00Aug 16, 21:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CA River Plate vs. AA Argentinos Juniors end in a draw?$2.05Aug 16, 21:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Lyngby BK vs. FC Midtjylland end in a draw?$6.00Aug 16, 20:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill UD Las Palmas vs. Albacete Balompié end in a draw?$2.05Aug 16, 19:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CR Vasco da Gama vs. Santos FC end in a draw?$1.92Aug 16, 19:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Beşiktaş JK vs. Eyüpspor end in a draw?$1.98Aug 16, 18:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pumas de la UNAM vs. Querétaro FC end in a draw?$1.92Aug 16, 18:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 200 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
200 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $1.98
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 16, 00:00 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 01:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 200 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.