Gregarious-Rainy
0xc4885dfad3a4874e49ba3ad26e33897103743f68
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
22
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-71.52
Realised
$-16.05
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on March 27?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Bangladesh win on 2026-03-26?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on August 31?
375 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 27?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Bernie Sanders say "Elon" or "Musk" during Fighting Oligarchy speech on August 24?
205 shares @ 6.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 24, 2025$0.00
$-14.00
- YES
Will Vietnam vs. Bangladesh end in a draw?
179 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be between 73-74°F on August 22?
54 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 22, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-26?
54 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 26, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET
33 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 8°C or below on March 27?$0.00Mar 28, 05:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 27?$0.00Mar 28, 05:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 27?$0.00Mar 28, 05:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 27?$0.00Mar 28, 05:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 27?$18.64Mar 27, 11:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 27?$9.00Mar 27, 11:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 27?$10.04Mar 27, 11:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 27?$3.83Mar 27, 11:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 29?$0.91Mar 27, 11:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 29?$0.60Mar 27, 11:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 28?$1.33Mar 27, 11:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 27?$0.21Mar 27, 11:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 27?$19.00Mar 27, 11:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 27?$0.99Mar 27, 11:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 27?$18.26Mar 27, 11:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 27?$11.00Mar 27, 11:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 27?$1.00Mar 27, 11:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 27?$1.00Mar 27, 11:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 27?$12.95Mar 27, 11:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 27?$0.29Mar 27, 11:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $3.58
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 27, 03:57 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 28, 05:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.