Cultivated-Heron
0xc4b53d227a8eab92a9d6f49d4ac4bf3d35890221
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
30
Open notional
$146.35
Total PnL
$-2.0K
Realised
$-968.85
Win rate
0%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 30- YES
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of July 6 above $290?
133 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$133.14
$0.14
- NO
Will Dacian Cioloș be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
13 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.21
$-0.01
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 13?
1578 shares @ 25.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-402.26
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?
1109 shares @ 25.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-286.31
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 8?
1050 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$0.00
$-2.10
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 2-8?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18?
925 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.85
- YES
Will Josh Safdie win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?
750 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-2.25
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on April 13?
743 shares @ 25.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-189.30
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 10?
738 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-2.95
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Apple (AAPL) finish week of July 6 above $290?$133.00Jul 10, 08:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $412.50 Week of June 22 2026?$133.40Jul 10, 07:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $412.50 Week of June 22 2026?$133.02Jun 26, 10:18 UTC
- REDEEMToronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles$8.15Jun 26, 10:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?$16.02Jun 26, 10:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana dip to $70 in May?$108.11Jun 26, 10:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana dip to $70 in May?$108.01May 31, 07:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYToronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles$4.46May 31, 07:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dacian Cioloș be the next Prime Minister of Romania?$13.22May 31, 07:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?$126.13May 31, 06:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?$126.01May 30, 10:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?$16.00May 30, 10:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 28?$13.03May 30, 10:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 28?$129.26May 30, 10:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 28?$129.02May 28, 06:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 28?$13.00May 28, 06:30 UTC
- REDEEMCounter-Strike: 3DMAX vs magic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs$8.00May 28, 06:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27?$134.13May 28, 06:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27?$134.01May 27, 10:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?$133.13May 27, 10:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $91.50
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 15, 08:46 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 10, 08:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.