Reasonable-Nothing
0xc4ba28ee3ca8bcd1accbd0ca704b6a16bffbf6bc
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
118
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-648.39
Realised
$12.30
Win rate
91%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 118- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET
212 shares @ 13.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$0.00
$-29.07
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET
206 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET
169 shares @ 23.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-40.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET
155 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$0.00
$-9.32
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET
147 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$0.00
$-23.49
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET
144 shares @ 6.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$0.00
$-9.33
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET
143 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET
108 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET$2.06Apr 30, 02:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET$0.49Apr 30, 02:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET$0.59Apr 30, 02:52 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET$3.19Apr 30, 02:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET$2.06Apr 30, 02:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET$1.05Apr 30, 02:47 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET$2.52Apr 30, 02:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET$2.03Apr 30, 02:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET$2.08Apr 30, 02:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET$5.41Apr 30, 02:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET$1.07Apr 30, 02:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET$2.10Apr 30, 02:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET$10.64Apr 30, 01:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET$1.06Apr 30, 01:57 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET$12.50Apr 30, 01:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET$5.22Apr 30, 01:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET$2.12Apr 30, 01:48 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$7.44Apr 30, 01:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$7.08Apr 30, 01:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET$2.12Apr 30, 01:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
91% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $5.68
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 30, 00:05 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 30, 02:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.