Pushy-Diplomacy
0xc4c4be6c9b44f0af9b0c0d556c321a14856f706b
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
123
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.5K
Realised
$-55.62
Win rate
56%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 123- NO
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
2000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET
1313 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 12, 2026$0.00
$-17.10
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET
1069 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-40.96
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on February 14?
700 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2026$0.00
$-6.30
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET
557 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET
505 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET
265 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-13.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET
180 shares @ 42.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-75.99
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8AM ET
175 shares @ 12.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-22.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET
175 shares @ 7.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-13.30
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET$0.00Jul 20, 23:18 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET$60.00Jul 20, 23:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET$8.60Jul 20, 23:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET$26.00Jul 20, 23:12 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET$0.01Jul 20, 23:04 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET$43.81Jul 20, 22:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET$30.69Jul 20, 22:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET$1.07Jul 20, 22:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET$5.31Jul 20, 22:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET$7.00Jul 20, 22:33 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET$0.00Jul 20, 22:30 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET$27.47Jul 20, 22:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET$25.16Jul 20, 22:28 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET$49.22Jul 20, 22:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET$25.96Jul 20, 22:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET$5.34Jul 20, 22:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET$0.45Jul 20, 22:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET$0.45Jul 20, 22:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET$1.68Jul 20, 22:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET$0.72Jul 20, 22:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
40/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
56% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $14.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 20:55 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 23:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.