Distorted-Commerce
0xc4c8dd14b8b004894045f280e7baaba4b1e10ed9
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
146
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.4K
Realised
$16.73
Win rate
83%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 146- NO
Will the State of the Union be 80 minutes or longer?
300 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026$0.00
$-2.70
- NO
Will Chuck Schumer applaud during Trump's State of the Union?
203 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-85.23
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET
200 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-107.98
- YES
Will the State of the Union be 120 minutes or longer?
171 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026$0.00
$-68.24
- YES
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on May 10?
130 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.31
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 24?
125 shares @ 16.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$0.00
$-20.14
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 30?
102 shares @ 34.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-35.58
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET
101 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-20.15
- YES
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on April 29?
100 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.30
- NO
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 men's singles tournament at the Miami Open?
100 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$0.00
$-17.00
Recent activity
- REWARD$7.98Aug 7, 20:24 UTC
- REWARD$3.01Jul 24, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 24?$3.64Jul 23, 11:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 24?$3.82Jul 23, 11:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 24?$13.00Jul 23, 01:10 UTC
- REWARD$3.99Jul 23, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 24?$10.57Jul 22, 23:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 24?$11.50Jul 22, 22:30 UTC
- REWARD$1.49Jul 19, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 19?$16.51Jul 18, 11:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 19?$18.50Jul 18, 04:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Katherine LaNasa – “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actress in a drama series?$6.18Jul 14, 04:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Gus" - A Mounted Tyrannosaurus Rex Skeleton sell for at least $30m at auction?$1.51Jul 14, 04:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Gus" - A Mounted Tyrannosaurus Rex Skeleton sell for at least $35m at auction?$39.05Jul 14, 01:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Gus" - A Mounted Tyrannosaurus Rex Skeleton sell for at least $35m at auction?$1.55Jul 13, 22:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$44.00Jul 13, 14:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Gus" - A Mounted Tyrannosaurus Rex Skeleton sell for at least $35m at auction?$2.65Jul 13, 05:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Gus" - A Mounted Tyrannosaurus Rex Skeleton sell for at least $35m at auction?$8.89Jul 13, 01:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Gus" - A Mounted Tyrannosaurus Rex Skeleton sell for at least $35m at auction?$22.00Jul 13, 00:04 UTC
- REWARD$1.25Jul 13, 00:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
83% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $9.76
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 6, 23:40 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 7, 20:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.