Gray-Feed
0xc4df68588cc9c2086e9a2abefbb0f8dc4adfb0d4
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
37
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-435.28
Realised
$-15.80
Win rate
0%
37 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 37- NO
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 11?
3854 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.00
$-7.50
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET
2709 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 3?
1975 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 28?
1882 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 11?
1504 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.00
$-7.50
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C on August 11?
692 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.00
$-7.50
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET
615 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.00
$-18.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 12?
546 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will England win on 2026-07-15?
145 shares @ 35.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-52.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - August 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET$9.67Aug 17, 22:59 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET$0.00Aug 17, 22:58 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET$0.01Aug 17, 22:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET$6.20Aug 17, 22:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET$1.04Aug 17, 22:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET$6.18Aug 17, 22:50 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET$0.00Aug 17, 22:45 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET$0.00Aug 17, 22:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET$1.05Aug 17, 22:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET$1.05Aug 17, 22:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET$6.31Aug 17, 22:38 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET$8.69Aug 17, 22:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET$1.04Aug 17, 22:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET$6.20Aug 17, 22:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET$1.07Aug 17, 22:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET$1.07Aug 17, 22:29 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET$18.78Aug 17, 22:26 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET$0.00Aug 17, 22:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET$30.70Aug 17, 22:24 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET$19.62Aug 17, 22:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 37 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
37 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $12.27
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 11, 12:48 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 22:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 37 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.