Puzzling-Zephyr
0xc50c1b56a4bd62577faaec0d4cc2fd72af4e8d41
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$539.82
Total PnL
$-1.0K
Realised
$-225.21
Win rate
21%
97 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 23?
40 shares @ 9.1¢·now 48.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$19.40
$15.76
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 23?
40 shares @ 9.1¢·now 48.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$19.20
$15.56
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 23?
60 shares @ 13.9¢·now 31.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$18.90
$10.59
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on July 23?
40 shares @ 9.1¢·now 46.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$18.60
$14.96
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on July 23?
40 shares @ 9.1¢·now 46.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$18.40
$14.76
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 23?
40 shares @ 9.1¢·now 43.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$17.40
$13.76
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 23?
40 shares @ 9.1¢·now 43.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$17.40
$13.76
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on July 23?
40 shares @ 9.1¢·now 43.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$17.20
$13.56
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 23?
60 shares @ 9.1¢·now 28.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$17.10
$11.64
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 23?
40 shares @ 9.1¢·now 41.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$16.60
$12.97
Recent activity
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Seoul on July 23?$0.00Jul 22, 18:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 23?$17.60Jul 22, 18:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on July 23?$0.23Jul 22, 18:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 23?$9.75Jul 22, 18:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 23?$5.01Jul 22, 18:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 23?$2.68Jul 22, 18:34 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in London on July 23?$0.00Jul 22, 18:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 23?$0.23Jul 22, 18:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 23?$0.02Jul 22, 18:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 23?$0.04Jul 22, 18:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 23?$13.60Jul 22, 18:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 23?$0.86Jul 22, 18:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 23?$1.53Jul 22, 18:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 31°C or higher on July 23?$0.02Jul 22, 18:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C on July 23?$0.04Jul 22, 18:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 23?$6.58Jul 22, 18:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 23?$4.23Jul 22, 18:33 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in London on July 23?$0.00Jul 22, 18:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 23?$0.23Jul 22, 18:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 23?$4.03Jul 22, 18:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
21% win rate over 97 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
97 closed markets, 21% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $3.58
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 18:20 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 18:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 97 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.