Polite-Expectancy
0xc526e0b180ac58a24003c3a3f34ef21d0725bf92
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
126
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-8.0K
Realised
$-26.27
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 126- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 67°F or below on January 6?
100000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 60-69 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?
17000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 7, 2026$0.00
$-17.00
- YES
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-01-06?
9900 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-99.00
- TARLETON STATE TEXANS
Abilene Christian Wildcats vs. Tarleton State Texans
7368 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-88.98
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on January 6?
7085 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-12.00
- CAVALIERS
Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves
6818 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-29.07
- PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
Michigan Wolverines vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
6401 shares @ 6.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 7, 2026$0.00
$-399.99
- MAGIC
Magic vs. Wizards
4669 shares @ 6.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 7, 2026$0.00
$-306.83
- GEORGIA BULLDOGS
Georgia Bulldogs vs. Florida Gators
3857 shares @ 21.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 7, 2026$0.00
$-829.99
- NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
Northwestern Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartans
3663 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 8, 2026$0.00
$-879.99
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev?$1.90Jan 16, 18:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?$4.00Jan 16, 18:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Microsoft (MSFT) close at $500-$510 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?$0.00Jan 16, 16:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Palantir (PLTR) close at <$168 on the final day of trading of the week of Jan 12 – Jan 16?$0.02Jan 16, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWizards vs. Suns$50.00Jan 12, 02:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYHeat vs. Thunder$40.00Jan 12, 01:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYHeat vs. Thunder$40.00Jan 12, 01:39 UTC
- TRADESELL49ers vs. Eagles$219.12Jan 12, 01:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYHeat vs. Thunder$19.80Jan 11, 20:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYNets vs. Grizzlies$8.00Jan 11, 20:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYPelicans vs. Magic$8.00Jan 11, 20:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYHeat vs. Thunder$5.00Jan 11, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill FC Bayern München vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw?$25.00Jan 11, 16:46 UTC
- TRADESELL49ers vs. Eagles$65.80Jan 11, 14:48 UTC
- TRADEBUY49ers vs. Eagles$135.99Jan 11, 12:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYRams vs. Panthers$100.00Jan 10, 23:55 UTC
- TRADESELLRams vs. Panthers$207.78Jan 10, 23:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 3°C on January 10?$0.20Jan 10, 19:54 UTC
- TRADESELLFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?$1.00Jan 10, 19:54 UTC
- TRADESELLMeta (META) Up or Down on January 12?$3.78Jan 10, 19:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $40.79
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 10, 17:20 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 16, 18:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".