0xc547118d3704944dbd79726431ede04feeeec82d
0xc547118d3704944dbd79726431ede04feeeec82d
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
58
Open notional
$76.54
Total PnL
$-0.19
Realised
$1.01
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 58- NO
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?
7 shares @ 68.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$4.89
$-0.11
- YES
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?
36 shares @ 14.0¢·now 9.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$3.21
$-1.79
- YES
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
26 shares @ 19.0¢·now 12.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.16
$-1.84
- YES
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 31, 2026?
3 shares @ 91.0¢·now 90.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.97
$-0.03
- YES
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on July 30, 2026?
3 shares @ 91.0¢·now 89.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.93
$-0.07
- YES
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?
9 shares @ 22.0¢·now 30.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$2.77
$0.77
- YES
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?
30 shares @ 3.4¢·now 7.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.18
$1.18
- YES
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 19?
4 shares @ 23.0¢·now 47.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$2.04
$1.04
- YES
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 14?
2 shares @ 51.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$1.96
$0.96
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
143 shares @ 1.4¢·now 1.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.93
$-0.07
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$2.01Jul 15, 18:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?$1.00Jul 15, 18:50 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by July 15?$2.28Jul 15, 18:21 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?$1.72Jul 15, 18:20 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 15?$0.98Jul 15, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?$1.00Jul 15, 03:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?$1.00Jul 15, 03:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?$1.00Jul 15, 03:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?$1.00Jul 15, 03:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026?$1.00Jul 15, 03:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$1.00Jul 15, 03:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?$5.03Jul 15, 03:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 19, 2026?$1.00Jul 15, 03:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 20, 2026?$1.00Jul 15, 03:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 Week of July 13 2026?$1.04Jul 15, 03:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 Week of July 13 2026?$1.04Jul 15, 03:28 UTC
- REDEEMGold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on July 14?$16.89Jul 15, 03:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026?$1.00Jul 14, 21:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS charges Hormuz fees by July 31, 2026?$1.00Jul 14, 21:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?$1.26Jul 14, 21:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $1.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 11, 22:35 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 18:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.