Serpentine-Flipflops
0xc5a25c8997555763efcb66a3255587772e0f9981
Wallet digest
Activity score
92/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$4.9K
Total PnL
$187.33
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
2488 shares @ 86.9¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.3K
$89.62
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
1728 shares @ 84.3¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.6K
$176.82
- NO
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?
509 shares @ 94.2¢·now 97.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$496.38
$16.38
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
237 shares @ 89.6¢·now 95.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$226.20
$14.20
- NO
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?
130 shares @ 93.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$120.38
$-0.62
- NO
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
1980 shares @ 5.1¢·now 3.2¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$63.36
$-36.64
- NO
Will Alberta join the US?
63 shares @ 95.3¢·now 97.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$61.49
$1.49
- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?
75 shares @ 60.0¢·now 57.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$42.74
$-2.26
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
192 shares @ 26.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$41.35
$-8.65
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
10 shares @ 98.1¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.99
$-0.01
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?$45.00Jul 27, 20:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?$10.01Jul 21, 22:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?$103.80Jul 21, 22:40 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$158.46Jul 21, 22:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?$121.00Jul 21, 12:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$50.00Jul 21, 12:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?$700.00Jul 21, 12:07 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$472.50Jul 21, 12:05 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$344.83Jul 7, 15:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?$200.00Jul 3, 18:58 UTC
- REDEEMUkraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? $252.85Jul 1, 06:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$90.00Jun 21, 11:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$350.00Jun 21, 11:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?$440.97Jun 21, 11:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?$1.3KJun 7, 09:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alberta join the US? $50.00Jun 7, 08:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alberta join the US? $10.00Jun 7, 08:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?$300.00Jun 7, 08:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? $244.00Jun 7, 08:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill The Alternative be part of the next Government of Denmark?$156.04Jun 7, 08:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 71/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $283.09
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 18, 16:52 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 27, 20:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.