Torn-Sleuth
0xc5a972a409a190f5a7c1079051f62795e9fe0c9a
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
104
Open notional
$1.6K
Total PnL
$-1.0K
Realised
$99.56
Win rate
73%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 104- YES
Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?
400 shares @ 83.2¢·now 84.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$335.98
$3.00
- YES
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in June?
210 shares @ 89.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$209.41
$21.56
- YES
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
206 shares @ 76.6¢·now 83.0¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$170.97
$13.06
- YES
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
111 shares @ 89.9¢·now 92.5¢·exp Sep 6, 2026$102.67
$2.87
- YES
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
100 shares @ 84.0¢·now 92.2¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$92.20
$8.20
- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
80 shares @ 78.0¢·now 94.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$75.88
$13.48
- YES
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
350 shares @ 64.1¢·now 18.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$64.75
$-159.75
- NO
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
100 shares @ 69.5¢·now 64.5¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$64.50
$-5.00
- YES
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
50 shares @ 91.0¢·now 95.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$47.83
$2.33
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
50 shares @ 89.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$45.25
$0.75
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?$36.10Jul 13, 17:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 6 - July 12?$30.00Jul 13, 17:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in June?$18.22Jul 13, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in June?$18.40Jul 13, 16:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in June?$4.69Jul 13, 05:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in June?$4.69Jul 13, 05:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in June?$35.56Jul 13, 05:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:17 UTC
- REWARD$1.69Jul 13, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?$41.05Jul 12, 22:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?$3.37Jul 12, 22:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?$1.19Jul 12, 22:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?$38.63Jul 12, 21:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?$21.41Jul 12, 21:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?$22.08Jul 12, 21:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?$41.55Jul 12, 20:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?$33.67Jul 12, 20:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?$8.42Jul 12, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?$42.50Jul 12, 20:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
73% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $23.96
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 11, 07:20 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.