0xc5c8db603c0498de80d7c25d37e65e82c00eafa7
0xc5c8db603c0498de80d7c25d37e65e82c00eafa7
Wallet digest
Activity score
32/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
29
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-84.43
Realised
$-5.21
Win rate
20%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 29- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Trump nominate Marc Sumerlin as the next Fed chair?
2880 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.88
- YES
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair?
2850 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.85
- YES
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?
1000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on February 20?
158 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 20, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 37°F or below on February 16?
83 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 69°F or below on February 17?
50 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 71°F or below on February 17?
43 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.99
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 79°F or below on February 22?
37 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 41°F or below on February 17?
20 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.99
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on February 26?$1.33Feb 24, 14:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on February 26?$2.00Feb 24, 14:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on February 26?$1.33Feb 24, 13:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on February 26?$2.00Feb 24, 13:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on February 26?$1.39Feb 24, 13:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on February 26?$2.00Feb 24, 12:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on February 26?$2.00Feb 24, 12:47 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8AM ET$0.00Feb 24, 08:17 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7PM ET$0.00Feb 24, 08:17 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7PM ET$0.00Feb 24, 08:15 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8AM ET$0.00Feb 24, 08:15 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$0.00Feb 24, 08:15 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$0.00Feb 24, 08:13 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8AM ET$0.00Feb 24, 08:12 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7PM ET$0.00Feb 24, 08:12 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7PM ET$0.00Feb 24, 08:10 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8AM ET$0.00Feb 24, 08:10 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$0.00Feb 24, 08:09 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$0.00Feb 24, 08:07 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8AM ET$0.00Feb 24, 08:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
7 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 7
- Avg trade size
- $1.72
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 24, 07:39 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 24, 14:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.