Thin-Plum
0xc631d9d610b9939f0b915b1916864e9b806876f6
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-28.1K
Realised
$819.92
Win rate
71%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 4AM ET
2249 shares @ 66.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2025$0.00
$-1.5K
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 8PM ET
1740 shares @ 69.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 22, 2025$0.00
$-1.2K
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET
1400 shares @ 15.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 20, 2025$0.00
$-220.99
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 12AM ET
1388 shares @ 59.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 25, 2025$0.00
$-825.11
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - October 2, 11PM ET
1090 shares @ 76.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 3, 2025$0.00
$-838.14
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
1002 shares @ 24.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 4, 2025$0.00
$-243.77
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - September 14, 3AM ET
921 shares @ 37.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 14, 2025$0.00
$-341.64
- NO
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31?
912 shares @ 56.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-515.15
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - August 11, 11AM ET
887 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2025$0.00
$-212.88
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 5AM ET
846 shares @ 75.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 21, 2025$0.00
$-640.84
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Elon and DOGE cut more than 200k employees in 2025?$10.80Jan 4, 12:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon and DOGE cut 50-100k employees in 2025?$5.41Jan 4, 12:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon and DOGE cut less than 50k employees in 2025?$0.61Jan 4, 12:16 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 16, 10PM ET$0.10Jan 4, 12:15 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET$1.00Jan 4, 12:15 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET$8.00Jan 4, 12:15 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET$15.00Jan 4, 12:15 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET$20.98Jan 4, 12:15 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET$28.25Jan 4, 12:15 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$50.15Jan 4, 12:15 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET$75.00Jan 4, 12:15 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET$75.00Jan 4, 12:15 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET$91.00Jan 4, 12:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?$99.00Jan 4, 12:15 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET$110.00Jan 4, 12:15 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET$114.00Jan 4, 12:15 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET$123.73Jan 4, 12:15 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET$125.00Jan 4, 12:15 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET$129.71Jan 4, 12:15 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$133.80Jan 4, 12:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
71% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
3 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 3
- Avg trade size
- $5.61
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 4, 12:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 4, 12:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.