Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-218.77

Realised

$-7.63

Win rate

37 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 37

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET
1167 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00
YES
Will Algeria win on 2026-07-02?
99 shares @ 25.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-25.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET
89 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026
$0.00
$-16.00
YES
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals
87 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026
$0.00
$-44.24
YES
DR Congo to win the second half?
62 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-8.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET
33 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00
YES
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals
31 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026
$0.00
$-8.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET
26 shares @ 11.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET
25 shares @ 28.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026
$0.00
$-7.00
UNDER
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 2.5
20 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYLamine Yamal: 1+ goals AND Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals AND Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?$1.00Jul 19, 01:04 UTC
TRADEBUYLamine Yamal: 1+ goals AND Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance AND Lionel Messi: 1+ goals$19.67Jul 19, 00:57 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$13.16Jul 19, 00:55 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$0.07Jul 19, 00:54 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$10.17Jul 19, 00:54 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$1.04Jul 19, 00:52 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET$2.07Jul 19, 00:44 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET$1.36Jul 19, 00:42 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET$1.04Jul 19, 00:41 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET$1.77Jul 19, 00:39 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET$1.05Jul 19, 00:35 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET$1.19Jul 19, 00:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET$1.01Jul 19, 00:34 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET$1.58Jul 19, 00:34 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET$2.09Jul 19, 00:31 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET$0.00Jul 19, 00:30 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET$2.05Jul 19, 00:27 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET$8.16Jul 19, 00:27 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET$0.00Jul 19, 00:25 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET$5.35Jul 19, 00:25 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

60/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 37 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

37 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity41 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry46 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk27 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 42
Avg trade size: $5.67
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 18, 23:53 UTC
Last active: Jul 19, 01:04 UTC
Win rate sample: 37 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 07:20:46 UTC·src:Polymarket Data