Perfect-Conspirator
0xc64cfcfc2e3d6f6b30130bfc799d3dd8873cb542
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
37
Open notional
$184.95
Total PnL
$-67.16
Realised
$-1.40
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 37- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 13?
34 shares @ 42.2¢·now 99.8¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$34.01
$19.64
- YES
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?
50 shares @ 45.0¢·now 44.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$22.00
$-0.50
- YES
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?
50 shares @ 41.0¢·now 38.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$19.00
$-1.50
- YES
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?
50 shares @ 35.0¢·now 34.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.25
$-0.25
- YES
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?
50 shares @ 29.0¢·now 30.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.25
$0.75
- NO
Will AfD win 28-31 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
20 shares @ 43.0¢·now 36.5¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$7.30
$-1.30
- NO
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?
11 shares @ 51.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$6.21
$0.60
- NO
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?
20 shares @ 47.0¢·now 30.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$6.00
$-3.40
- NO
Will José Maria Neves win the Cape Verde presidential election?
20 shares @ 39.0¢·now 29.5¢·exp Nov 15, 2026$5.90
$-1.90
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 13?
20 shares @ 43.0¢·now 28.5¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$5.70
$-2.90
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $340,000 and $345,000 on September 30?$6.20Aug 13, 08:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?$9.40Aug 13, 08:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the median home value in the Chicago Metro be at least $345,000 on September 30?$3.00Aug 13, 08:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Helena Proos be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Uppsala?$3.60Aug 13, 08:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jenny Steen be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Örebro County?$4.80Aug 13, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?$5.61Aug 13, 07:56 UTC
- MERGEWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in August?$20.00Aug 13, 03:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in August?$14.46Aug 13, 03:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the median home value in Miami be between $1,053,000 and $1,089,000 on September 30?$5.27Aug 13, 03:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the median home value in Miami be between $1,053,000 and $1,089,000 on September 30?$0.31Aug 13, 03:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the median home value in Miami be between $1,053,000 and $1,089,000 on September 30?$0.62Aug 13, 03:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill AfD win 28-31 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?$8.60Aug 13, 02:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill summer 2026 be France's hottest summer on record?$2.60Aug 13, 02:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?$17.50Aug 13, 02:28 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.51Aug 13, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?$3.20Aug 13, 00:12 UTC
- REWARD$15.86Aug 13, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Edu Aguirre attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?$2.40Aug 12, 23:58 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 13?$20.00Aug 12, 23:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 13?$11.40Aug 12, 23:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $6.30
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 12, 05:06 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 13, 08:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.