Mad-School
0xc676679416e4b234de28c4db991c07c9480af35c
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$758.10
Total PnL
$-2.1K
Realised
$5.70
Win rate
42%
33 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Chicago Air Quality Index below 100 by July 20, 2026?
321 shares @ 36.6¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$316.29
$198.66
- NO
Will Daylight Savings Time become permanent in the US in 2026?
150 shares @ 51.0¢·now 80.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$120.75
$44.25
- YES
Will Kimberly Yee be the Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction Republican nominee?
110 shares @ 58.0¢·now 79.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$86.90
$23.11
- YES
Will Mark Brown be the next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?
50 shares @ 53.6¢·now 86.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$43.25
$16.45
- NO
Will Lana Del Rey release a new album by September 30?
70 shares @ 50.1¢·now 55.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$38.85
$3.75
- YES
Will Ron Nirenberg win the 2026 Bexar County Judge election?
36 shares @ 63.4¢·now 84.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$30.28
$7.56
- YES
Will Lana Del Rey release a new album by December 31?
41 shares @ 54.0¢·now 70.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$28.92
$6.60
- YES
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 52.0 and 54.9 in July?
30 shares @ 17.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$23.25
$18.15
- YES
Will there be at least 3000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?
21 shares @ 22.0¢·now 77.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$16.41
$11.72
- NO
Will Martin Zamani win the 2026 WSOP Player of the Year?
20 shares @ 52.0¢·now 65.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$13.10
$2.70
Recent activity
- REDEEMColumbus Air Quality Index below 100 by July 18, 2026?$50.00Jul 21, 06:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kimberly Yee be the Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction Republican nominee?$32.95Jul 21, 06:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be between 46 million and 50 million?$4.69Jul 21, 05:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be between 42 million and 46 million?$0.18Jul 21, 05:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be between 38 million and 42 million?$0.09Jul 21, 05:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be between 38 million and 42 million?$0.03Jul 21, 05:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be between 38 million and 42 million?$0.12Jul 21, 05:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be between 34 million and 38 million?$0.06Jul 21, 05:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be between 34 million and 38 million?$0.13Jul 21, 05:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tom Horne be the Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction Republican nominee?$1.04Jul 21, 03:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tom Horne be the Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction Republican nominee?$2.49Jul 21, 03:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tom Horne be the Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction Republican nominee?$0.54Jul 21, 03:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cory Mills be the FL-07 Republican nominee?$10.00Jul 21, 00:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cory Mills be the FL-07 Republican nominee?$10.00Jul 21, 00:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cory Mills be the FL-07 Republican nominee?$10.00Jul 21, 00:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYChicago Air Quality Index below 100 by July 20, 2026?$8.30Jul 20, 20:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the AQI at the World Cup final be 90 or higher?$44.55Jul 20, 10:29 UTC
- REWARD$1.05Jul 20, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYChicago Air Quality Index below 100 by July 20, 2026?$37.69Jul 19, 23:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYChicago Air Quality Index below 100 by July 20, 2026?$60.34Jul 19, 23:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
60/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
42% win rate over 33 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
33 closed markets, 42% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $9.14
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 18, 18:02 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 06:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 33 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.