Celebrated-Operating-Creation
0xc68998fd57b84b8ccdf45e2228677893f03273ba
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
31
Open notional
$21.63
Total PnL
$-144.52
Realised
$30.97
Win rate
50%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 31- YES
Will Zack Wheeler win the 2026 NL Comeback Player of the Year award?
16 shares @ 80.0¢·now 72.5¢·exp Dec 19, 2026$11.60
$-1.20
- YES
Will David Bailey win the 2026 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season?
20 shares @ 22.0¢·now 29.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2027$5.80
$1.40
- NO
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?
20 shares @ 30.0¢·now 19.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.90
$-2.10
- YES
Will Daemon Targaryen die in the House of the Dragon Season 3 finale?
20 shares @ 20.0¢·now 1.6¢·exp Aug 9, 2026$0.32
$-3.68
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week 1?
20 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$0.01
$-3.19
- UP
Hyperliquid Up or Down - August 7, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET
50 shares @ 41.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$0.00
$-20.49
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET
35 shares @ 71.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 10, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET
25 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$0.00
$-12.53
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on August 10?
20 shares @ 41.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 10, 2026$0.00
$-8.20
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 9?
20 shares @ 38.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 9, 2026$0.00
$-7.60
Recent activity
- MERGEWill José Maria Neves win the Cape Verde presidential election?$20.00Aug 11, 14:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill José Maria Neves win the Cape Verde presidential election?$11.34Aug 11, 14:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill José Maria Neves win the Cape Verde presidential election?$1.26Aug 11, 14:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill José Maria Neves win the Cape Verde presidential election?$11.80Aug 11, 13:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?$6.00Aug 11, 10:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill David Bailey win the 2026 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season?$4.40Aug 11, 03:38 UTC
- REWARD$7.32Aug 11, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zack Wheeler win the 2026 NL Comeback Player of the Year award?$12.80Aug 10, 22:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET$25.50Aug 10, 18:47 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET$26.88Aug 10, 16:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET$25.12Aug 10, 16:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in August?$1.99Aug 10, 16:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill USD be between 1.8M and 1.9M Iranian rials on August 31?$4.62Aug 10, 16:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Ornn B200 Index be less than $5.50 on September 30, 2026?$6.23Aug 10, 16:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in August?$6.57Aug 10, 16:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?$7.81Aug 10, 16:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?$9.20Aug 10, 16:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Texas have the closest Senate race in 2026?$30.32Aug 10, 16:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on August 10?$0.00Aug 10, 15:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on August 10?$1.27Aug 10, 15:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $8.21
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 9, 01:34 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 11, 14:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.