Wallet digest

active

Activity score

48/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-14.9K

Realised

$0.00

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET
7439 shares @ 34.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026
$0.00
$-2.5K
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET
6399 shares @ 54.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026
$0.00
$-3.5K
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET
4794 shares @ 53.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026
$0.00
$-2.6K
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET
4739 shares @ 29.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026
$0.00
$-1.4K
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET
4278 shares @ 34.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026
$0.00
$-1.5K
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET
1506 shares @ 38.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026
$0.00
$-578.15
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET
1395 shares @ 37.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026
$0.00
$-525.29
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET
1301 shares @ 31.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026
$0.00
$-408.76
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET
1273 shares @ 37.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026
$0.00
$-472.22
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET
310 shares @ 49.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026
$0.00
$-154.21

Recent activity

REFERRAL_REWARD$3.23Jun 18, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$4.40Jun 17, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$5.20Jun 16, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$4.83Jun 15, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$5.31Jun 14, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$5.16Jun 13, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$3.35Jun 12, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$4.66May 30, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$19.75May 29, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$24.70May 28, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$37.53May 27, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$14.38May 26, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$19.50May 25, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$91.78May 24, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$9.50May 23, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.54May 22, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.16May 21, 00:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET$4.90May 20, 10:23 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET$10.00May 20, 10:00 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET$13.70May 20, 09:53 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

3/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

pass

20 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.

Resolved-only track record

block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity33 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence0 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry100 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk49 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 20
Avg trade size: $11.45
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 8, 00:35 UTC
Last active: Jun 18, 00:35 UTC
Win rate sample: 0 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 02:38:36 UTC·src:Polymarket Data