Buoyant-Molasses
0xc6ba0142cee8481d4fdc636646df61ef27e2b46d
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.18
Total PnL
$-1.3K
Realised
$66.12
Win rate
77%
26 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Hyperbeat FDV above $300M one day after launch?
16 shares @ 3.5¢·now 3.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.57
$-0.01
- YES
Hyperbeat FDV above $200M one day after launch?
20 shares @ 3.5¢·now 2.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.40
$-0.30
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in July?
25 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.9¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.21
$-6.54
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 5?
876 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-0.88
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 4?
598 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.00
$-0.60
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 Week of June 22 2026?
410 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.00
$-15.99
- YES
Will "The Roast of Kevin Hart" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
355 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
FDA approves Cingulate's Ctx-1301?
275 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-13.57
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?
267 shares @ 8.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-22.59
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 7?
253 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.01
Recent activity
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$5.00Jul 21, 17:35 UTC
- REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - July 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$5.00Jul 21, 17:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$0.00Jul 21, 17:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$0.05Jul 21, 17:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$3.10Jul 21, 17:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - July 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$2.45Jul 21, 17:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - July 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$0.01Jul 21, 17:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$2.30Jul 21, 17:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$1.23Jul 21, 17:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - July 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$0.01Jul 21, 17:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - July 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$0.01Jul 21, 17:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - July 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$0.01Jul 21, 17:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$1.90Jul 21, 17:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$1.12Jul 21, 17:30 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - July 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET$5.00Jul 21, 16:00 UTC
- REDEEMBNB Up or Down - July 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET$5.00Jul 21, 16:00 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET$4.99Jul 21, 16:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET$0.05Jul 21, 15:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - July 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET$1.07Jul 21, 15:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - July 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET$0.01Jul 21, 15:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
77% win rate over 26 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
26 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $0.73
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 15:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 17:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 26 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.